3 Key Factors Are Aligning. Is the Door Opening for an Altcoin Recovery?

Jakarta, Pintu News – Three major factors are now converging, providing a strong enough basis for altcoin bulls to potentially experience a recovery. The signal comes as the crypto market in general continues to absorb pressure from geopolitical volatility and low investor appetite for risky assets.

Are altcoins poised for a recovery? Here are the signals seen in the market

Market watcher and analyst, Ash Crypto, highlighted that the ALT/BTC ratio has printed four consecutive green bars on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator.

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According to him, a series like this has returned for the first time since 2020. During that period, altcoins surged about 60% against Bitcoin in the following three months.

He explains that after the 2022 bear market, the ALT/BTC ratio has mostly been in the red and oversold for almost four years. Because of this, it felt like altcoins never really recovered, even when Bitcoin set new price records. In other words, it was only Bitcoin that was moving forward, while altcoins hadn’t really picked up.

Ash Crypto also emphasized that there are currently three factors that are starting to align simultaneously. The first signal is that MACD series.

The second factor came from the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data, which recorded above the 52 level for three consecutive months, namely 52.6 in January, 52.4 in February, and 52.7 in March.

He added that the ISM level above 55 was once the main driver of the alt-season in 2017 and 2021. The level has not been reached at the moment, but the direction of movement is considered to be heading there.

The third factor is US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, which is now at a five-year low. According to him, this condition has been a very positive macro background for risky assets, including altcoins, in recent years.

On the other hand, analyst Merlijn The Trader thinks altcoins are forming a multi-year cup-and-handle pattern. In technical analysis, this pattern is known as a bullish signal that indicates a potential continuation of the uptrend.

He describes the pattern as a structure that usually appears before a huge price movement in the market.

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Recovery Window Opens, but Risks Remain

Although sentiment has started to improve, Ash Crypto emphasized that the current condition cannot be called a full altcoin season yet. According to him, the phase can only be confirmed if the ISM reading breaks the 55 level, market liquidity expands in general, and Bitcoin’s dominance experiences a sustained decline at the same time.

For now, he sees more chance of recovery in the next two to three months, as long as a number of key conditions remain met.

He thinks that scenario requires Bitcoin to break $76,000, while Ethereum needs to move up towards the $2,800 to $3,200 range. He also hopes that the ongoing war does not escalate further so that geopolitical pressures do not weigh on the market again.

These signals came when more than 40% of altcoins were trading at all-time lows or very close to them. This figure surpasses even the previous peak of the bear market which was around 38%.

Ultimately, the direction of the altcoin market in the second quarter is likely to be determined by one key thing: whether the combination of signals actually encourages sustained capital rotation, or if it weakens again due to geopolitical pressures.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference:

• Coinpedia. 3 Factors Are Aligning That Could Trigger an Altcoin Recovery. Accessed on April 2, 2026