Is the Crypto Bear Market Finally Nearing Its End? Here Are 3 Strong Signals and 1 Important Warning
Jakarta, Pintu News – Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $69,230 as of April 6, up 3.47% in 24 hours, after an Axios report confirmed that the United States and Iran are in active talks over a potential 45-day ceasefire, with Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey acting as mediators.
The first to come under pressure were the shorts, with liquidations reaching $196 million in 24 hours. The number of liquidated short positions was also almost three times greater than long positions. These gains pushed Bitcoin towards the upper limit of its $65,000 to $73,000 moving range, an area that has limited its movement for the past five weeks.
Bitcoin Price Levels to Watch
Michaël van de Poppe has just emphasized an important level that the market is currently watching. In his post on X, he mentioned that if Bitcoin is able to break $71,000, then the market could potentially continue testing the $80,000 area.
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The reason behind this view is that volatility has started to increase, while he thinks the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is likely to enter its final phase this week. In that scenario, the $71,000 level is not just a resistance area, but also a trigger point that could pave the way for further gains. If that happens, the move would be Bitcoin’s first clean breakout since the war conflict began.
As such, this level is now the price threshold most watched by market participants.
Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom Line: What Traders Are Watching Right Now
On-chain analyst Willy Woo shared an analytical framework that explains three key signals for the market to watch.
He described the change in investor behavior from hoping without action to aggressive buying when prices start to move up.
In more detail, the sequence is as follows: the price first breaks through the new investor’s cost basis, then passive expectation turns into real aggressive buying, and the surge in demand pushes the on-chain cost basis from the red zone to the green zone. When these three signals appear simultaneously, not only the price changes, but also the overall market regime.
The big question now is whether all these conditions have been met. One prominent piece of data shows that long-term holders now control around 80% of the total Bitcoin supply in circulation.
Historically, the bottom of a bear market usually forms when that number approaches 85%. This means that the market isn’t quite there yet, but the direction is starting to become clear. Today’s latest update also reinforces that view.
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CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost confirmed that the supply of long-term holders has again recorded positive growth for the first time since November. An average of around 308,000 BTC is now being added to the supply of long-term holders.
He adds that historically, this kind of behavioral change has often preceded positive Bitcoin price developments, though he cautions that it’s too early to draw any firm conclusions.
Does 2026 still hold big surprises?
The ceasefire is just one part of a broader picture, which some analysts say is still not fully accounted for by the markets.
If the Iran conflict does end, the new Fed chair starts cutting rates, the CLARITY Act is passed, and traditional financial institutions start funneling capital through stablecoins – all of which are currently underway or actively being discussed – then the market landscape in the second half of 2026 could look very different compared to what is currently reflected in prices.
The ETH/BTC ratio is also starting to show signs of preparing for its strongest move of the cycle.
Meanwhile, the Russell 2000, an index that tracks small-cap stocks and is often one of the clearest indicators of broad market risk appetite, has broken out of a key area and retested. This is the same pattern that appeared in the previous two cycles before the market resumed a more sustained rise.
Based on this reading, April is seen as the last month of the price correction phase. Larger movements are expected to be seen in May.
Reasons to Stay Alert
This configuration has appeared about three times since the war began. Each time, signals of a ceasefire briefly pushed Bitcoin up, but the rally eventually faded again. Currently, Bitcoin’s technical indicators are also showing a split: Moving Averages are indicating a Strong Buy, while Oscillators are showing a Strong Sell at the same time.
This means that the market still doesn’t have a completely solid direction. Will the $71,000 level be the final decider? Let’s look forward to the next developments.
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*Disclaimer
This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.
Reference:
- Coinpedia. Is the Crypto Bear Market Finally Ending? Top 3 Signals and 1 Warning. Accessed on April 10, 2026
