As the Strait of Hormuz Reopens, Can Bitcoin Shatter $80,000 This Week?

Jakarta, Pintu News – Bitcoin (BTC) climbed beyond $78,000 on Friday (17/4), reaching its highest level in more than two months as a confirmed double-bottom breakout spurred momentum towards the $80,000 zone.

This rally followed Iran’s reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under the terms of a ceasefire, which triggered widespread risk-on moves in equity and crypto markets. However, analysts are still sharply divided as to whether BTC is capable of sustaining such a push to break the heavy upper resistance level.

Weekly Close Key to $80,000

As of April 17, Bitcoin was trading at $77,922, slightly below the psychological level of $80,000 that was last tested on January 31, 2026. This spike came after reports that Iran had fully opened the Strait of Hormuz, amid the terms of the ceasefire.

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Against this backdrop, all eyes remain on whether Bitcoin price is able to reclaim the psychological level of $80,000 by the end of this week, potentially benefiting from strong risk-on sentiment.

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that BTC has maintained its position above the top of the double-bottom formation near $73,000, positioning the price for a positive weekly close.

However, he warned that a similar pattern(setup) in March ended with an upside wick and rejection afterward.

“Bitcoin’s development on theDaily timeframe is promising, allowing the price to hold above the top of the Double Bottom formation around $73,000… It is the upcomingWeekly Close that will be the most important thing to watch,” writes Rekt Capital.

On the daily chart, BTC has turned the previous resistance level near $73,000 into support, with consecutive daily closes above the previous breakdown zone. If this behavior continues, it could confirm a breakout from a multi-week consolidation range.

Meanwhile, Kalshi’s prediction market now estimates a roughly 40% chance that BTC will reach $80,000 this month, but several key levels remain in focus for Q2.

Trader Ted Pillows identified $76,000 as a key reclaim level that could push prices to the $78,000 to $80,000 range.

“The key zone for Bitcoin here is $76,000 and a reclaim could push BTC towards the $78,000-$80,000 zone. This is where I would take a short position on Bitcoin,” Ted wrote.

Indeed, Bitcoin’s surge past $76,000 provided anentry point for long positions, where a brief test of the $78,000 threshold on Friday has surprised many skeptics. According to Coinglass data, nearly $100 million worth of short positions have been liquidated in the last hour.

Bear market warning dampens optimism

Despite the short-term bullish structure, Rekt Capital also highlights significant macro headwinds.

He argues that for BTC to establish sustained bullish momentum, the crypto asset needs to reclaim the $82,500 level and break the string of lower highs that it has been on for the past few months.

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History suggests that both milestones are unlikely to happen, with a potential bear market expected to remain for about six more months.

The 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), which tends to act as resistance during bear market phases, is right on the current price path. The broader oil shock from the Hormuz crisis adds another layer of macro uncertainty.

BTC is also piling up under amacro triangle pattern that itbroke to the downside a few months ago, a pattern that in 2014 ended with a downward distribution.

QCP Group echoed this caution, noting that derivatives market participants still preferdownside protection. This rally appears to be spot market driven and fragile in nature, rather than a structural trend change.

Separately, Ted Pillows revealed his plan to take a short position on BTC around the $79,000 to $80,000 zone. He cited the pattern of the previous two local tops where the price broke the high of the capitulation candle before eventually reversing.

On-chain data hints at accumulation but requires confirmation

Meanwhile, a number of on-chain indicators have emitted mixed signals throughout the month of April. CryptoQuant analyst Woo Mink Yu highlighted the Bitcoin Combined Market Index, or BCMI, which has dropped to a range of 0.2 to 0.3.

Historically, this zone marks deep undervaluation.

“We are entering the ‘Value-Accumulation Zone‘. The data suggests that the downside potential is becoming increasingly limited compared to the long-term upside potential. However, wait for price stabilization to confirm thebottom signal of the index,” CryptoQuant analyst Woominkyu wrote.

Supporting the argument for a healthier rally, separate CryptoQuant data shows that open interest on Binance has plummeted even as prices have been creeping up.

Rallies built on spot demand instead of leverage significantly reduce the risk of suddenliquidation cascades.

Meanwhile,exchange inflows on Binance have dropped to 2020 levels, suggesting thatholders prefer tohold their assets rather than sellinto strength.

Even so, a separate data point marked around 11,000 BTC per hour moving onto exchanges this week, which is the highest rate since December 2025.

Large holders may be positioning themselves to make distributions if the rally extends further.

Early forecasts for April project BTC to reach the mid-$70,000s range by the end of the month. Friday’s daily close will likely determine whether BTC’ s breakout above $77,000 will translate into a real push towards $80,000 or just be another failed attempt inside the broader bear market structure.

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*Disclaimer

This content aims to enrich readers’ information. Pintu collects this information from various relevant sources and is not influenced by outside parties. Note that an asset’s past performance does not determine its projected future performance. Crypto trading activities are subject to high risk and volatility, always do your own research and use cold hard cash before investing. All activities of buying and selling Bitcoin and other crypto asset investments are the responsibility of the reader.

Reference:

• BeInCrypto. Can Bitcoin Reach $80,000 This Weekend as the Strait of Hormuz Opens? Accessed on April 17, 2026